Hab modeling

From SuperMe

Contents 1 Harmful Algal Bloom Dynamics in the Gulf of Maine 1.1 Project Members 1.2 Project Summary 1.2.1 Background 1.2.2 Objective 1.2.3 Expected Results 1.2.4 References 1.3 Tentative Schedule 1.4 Progress Reports 1.5 Final Report

Harmful Algal Bloom Dynamics in the Gulf of Maine

Project Members

Project by: Jennifer Brown (University of Maine)
Advisor: Dr. Fei Chai (School of Marine Sciences, UMaine)

Project Summary

Background

Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning is a significant ailment which is caused by consumption of shellfish which have accumulated dinoflagellates containing saxitoxin. These toxic dinoflagellates are a type of eukaryotic algae which cause a phenomenon called harmful algal bloom (HAB) or “Red Tide” when they occur in large numbers. In the Gulf of Maine, HABs are caused mainly by the phytoplankton species Alexandrium fundyense (Anderson et al., 2005a). Alexandrium blooms occur during the summer months, and can have a devastating effect on the New England shellfish economy. Some of the many factors which affect the development of HABs are wind, ocean current, temperature, salinity, and the presence of “dormant” Alexandrium called cysts (Townsend et al., 2005; Anderson et al., 2005b). Another possible factor, which will be examined in this project, is the interaction between Alexandrium and other phytoplankton species. The great number of factors involved facilitates the need for a more comprehensive nutrient-plankton model and for the use of a supercomputer.

Objective

Current models of Alexandrium dynamics in the Gulf of Maine exclude the dynamics of other phytoplankton species such as diatoms (McGillicuddy et al., 2005), so the effects of interspecies relationships and competition for nutrients are unknown. The goal of this project is to incorporate Alexandrium fundyense into an existing ecosystem model (Chai et al., 2002), and to analyze the effects of other species and nutrients on the Alexandrium dynamic.

Expected Results

Interspecies interactions involving HAB have not yet been studied. I hope to find that there is indeed an important link between Alexandrium fundyense and other phytoplankton species in the Gulf of Maine. I also hope that this knowledge might help to improve HAB forecasting and prevention.

References

Anderson, D., D. J. McGillicuddy, Jr., D. Townsend and J. Turner (2005a) (eds.): The Ecology and Oceanography of Toxic Alexandrium fundyense Blooms in the Gulf of Maine. Deep-Sea Res. II 52 (19-21): 2365-2876.

Anderson, D., C. A. Stock, B. A. Keafer, A. B. Nelson, D. J. McGillicuddy, M. Keller, B. Thompson, P. A. Matrai, J.Martin (2005b). Alexandrium fundyense cyst dynamics in the Gulf of Maine. Deep-Sea Res. II 52 (19-21): 2522-2542.

Chai, F., R. C. Dugdale, T-H Peng, F. P. Wilkerson, and R. T. Barber (2002): One Dimensional Ecosystem Model of the Equatorial Pacific Upwelling System, Part I: Model Development and Silicon and Nitrogen Cycle. Deep-Sea Res. II, Vol. 49, No. 13-14, 2713-2745.

McGillicuddy Jr., D.J., D.M. Anderson, D.R. Lynch, D.W. Townsend (2005). Mechanisms regulating large-scale seasonal fluctuations in Alexandrium fundyense populations in the Gulf of Maine: Results from a physical–biological model. Deep-Sea Res. II 52 (19-21): 2698-2714.

Townsend, D. W., N. R. Pettigrew, A. C. Thomas (2005): On the nature of Alexandrium fundyense blooms in the Gulf of Maine. Deep-Sea Res. II 52 (19-21): 2603-2630.

Tentative Schedule

• Week 1 (05/26-06/01):
  • SuperMe program orientation
• Week 2 (06/02-06/08):
  • Read background information
  • Create project abstract
• Week 3 (06/09-06/15):
  • Continue to read background information
  • Begin modeling using Stella software
• Week 4 (06/16-06/22):
  • Complete modeling using Stella software
  • Begin to add Alexandrium species to model
• Week 5 (06/23-06/29):
  • Run Stella model
  • Evaluate model output and statistical data
• Week 6 (06/30-07/06):
  • Run 3-dimensional model simulation
• Week 7 (07/07-07/13):
  • Continue with 3-D model
  • Compare 3-D and Stella model outputs
  • Create visualization
• Week 8 (07/14-07/20):
  • Continue analysis
  • Begin to prepare report and presentation
• Week 9 (07/21-07/27):
  • Complete project report
  • Prepare presentation
  • Written report due - Thursday, July 22
• Week 10 (07/28-08/01):
  • Finish preparing poster and presentation
  • Poster due - Thursday, July 31
  • Final symposium - Friday, August 1st

Progress Reports

Week 1 (Program orientation)
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Weeks 5 and 6

Final Report

Final Report
Poster